AER (Aercap Holdings)

AER came public mid November at 23.00 It started the day out hot but closed just a bit above the offering price. It spent 2 months trading around the IPO price but appears to have now broken out of its range and volume has come in higher on the advance. The company is profitable and should recognize some revenue stability due to the dynamics in the Airline industry (its main source of business).

I bot the stock on the 5th as the stock pushed to a new recovery high on strong volume. I think $23 is a key level and I will be less likely to hold it if it crosses below that level as it proves my initial thoughts wrong. However it could run a good bit and still be priced attractively for a company with improving fundamentals. If it earns $2.02 next year as forecasted it will be at a very low multiple. I anticipate the stock beginning to recognize that figure unless we have bad news at earnings time.

Jan 8, 2007

I added an additional 2,500 shares at $24.30 as the stock broke above the $24 level that had been minor resistance. I wanted to have a larger position if it follows through from this level.

Jan 10, 2007:

The stock has made an impressive run in the last few days and now has a bit more risk of giving some of that positive action back. For this reason I went ahead and took the extra 2,500 shares off at $25.62 but I want to hold the original pice as long as the trend remains intact.

Jan 23, 2007

The stock has traded down a bit which is normal especially when the overall market is becoming more distributive. However, I wanted to use caution and raise some cash and the shorter-term trading positions ended up being where I took some profits. I sold the 5,000 i had left at $25.39