ANW (Agean Marine)

The IPO was at 14 and it quickly traded up to 17 in the first 2 days. A pullback to 15 found suport over a weeks time and on 12/22 it moved up quickly and i added shares at 15.80. Earnings appear to be solid and the group is strong so i anticipate it to trade well for the next week or two.

The chart to the left is draw on Dec 29. All appears well and it will be interesting to see if managers will add aggressively to purchases at the start of the new year as volume comes back into the market.












Jan 12, 2007



The market has caught a bid and I have been successful in capturing some good returns in most of my positions. However ANW has been quite the laggard. I'm uncomfortable holding a position like this because I think that if the market gets weak this name will experience more than its share of distribution. So I took a very small loss and sold my position at $15.58 freeing up capital to use elsewhere.

MPEL (Melco PBL Entertainment)

MPEL is a gaming company with exposure to the new Macau development areas. The company is just turning profitable and its IPO faired well. I actually expected it to gain 50% or more from the offering price but the price was $18.50 and it closed just above 21.50 the first day of trading.

The stock came in to test the $19 area and then reversed back up. I got too heavily involved trading it the first few days and was lucky to have not been hurt worse. (see post) I got the position size paired back to a normal level and the position has been working well. I expect there to be a good bit of demand for the stock and i look to LVS as a similar comparison. I look forward to seeing how much i can let this one run as it should be an exciting story.

Jan 12, 2007

Yesterday the market had a strong day. This included LVS trading to a new high (in the same business as MPEL). However, MPEL didn't have any strength at all. This makes me concerned that it could be ready to roll over if there is any bad news so I decided to play it safe and take my small gains on this trade and wait and see how things shake out for this name without risking capital on a situation that is not completely clear right now.

KBW (KBW Inc)

KBW is a trading, research, and investment banker for small cap companies. The company has been profitable at least since 2001 although its earnings growth has been up and down. It came public at 21 on Nov 9th and immediately traded up from 25.50 to 27.50 its first day. The stock has taken some time to consolidate and settle down from erratic trading.

On Dec 15th the stock gave confirmation it was moving out of a pullback by trading up on strong volume. I took 5,100 shares (intending to take 5,000 but getting an order wrong) which is just less than a 2% position. It has since followed through but failed to overtake its high from the first of December.

The first few trading days this year have been difficult but volume has remained relatively tame so I am waiting and watching to see if it catches a bid.

Jan 10, 2007

The market had some strength today and most of the names I am involved with traded up nicely. KBW didn't get any interest at all and I am a bit uncomfortable with its lack of trading and lack of price movement so I put in a Limit on Close order and was executed at 28.70 to give me a small gain of $2,500 or so.

GG (Coldcorp Inc)

Gold has had an incredible run as a commodity and many of the miners have been taken along for the ride. GG is no exception having risen quickly in 2005 and early 2006 only to peak and stall out. I believe that the stock sucked in many premature short sellers as it broke its initial swing low and dropped to 20.35 in October. It has since rebounded over 50% to 31.50 before beginning to trade off again. This week it traded through the 50 day average on high volume in a market that is starting to show signs of weakening.

I am not comfortable taking too much short exposure on right now as the market has not given enough reason to be bearish. However there is enough concern and I have enough long exposure to warrant taking a few select short positions as a defensive measure for now. if we get more general selling on strong volume, I will begin to take a more aggresively bearish stance. For now, Iam short 8,500 shares of GG (just less than a 3% position) at 25.86. If it is quickly successful, I will look for rallies on weak volume to add size to the position.

Feb 10, 2007

Gold as a commodity has gotten stronger. This does not always convert to gold stocks doing well but in this case my position finally stoopped me out. The stock traded up above the 200 day which was providing a bit of resistance and it did so on strong volume. Discipline requires me to take my loss for now instead of waiting around hoping the stock will turn back in my direction. Failing to live with this discipline can be deadly for a portfolio (a lesson that is not fun to learn) so I covered my short.

GUID (Guidance Software Inc) #1

GUID came public at 11.50 on the 13th. It never traded below 13.50 and closed above 15 the first day. It continued higher for 2 more days peaking at 17.90 at which point it began its first pullback. I bot the stock on the 27th. The 26th was its first positive day after pulling back below 16 and so I bought a 10,000 share position the next day as it traded up on higher volume. By the end of the day it had logged a down day but basically it closed flat. I expect it to continue back up to at least test its previous high over the next few weeks.


Fundamentally there is not much out there on the company yet. They turned their first profit last year and they are increasing sales impressively QoQ this year. They are in a strong group right now and I expect that to provide some additional support. As always, I am working with a 10% stopbut will cut the position if it seams necessary before i get to that point.





JAN 9, 2007



The stock has been a heartbreaker as it sold back down after making a promising run. I was trying to hold for a rebound as I still felt the stock had some room to run but Tuesday the stock fell off a cliff and I was forced to stop out of the position. Liquidity is scarce (always the case when you really need to get a trade done) and I felt fortunate to get my 10,000 shares sold at 13.85. This left me with a loss of $21,485 or 13.4% on the position. Another good reminder to keep smaller positions in illiquid names as it is more difficult to reverse your position when taking profits or stopping out of a position.

Forgiveness (both ways)

I feel like the worst dad in the world...

Sunday afternoon i was doing some reading in my office and heard the girls getting into trouble out in the living room. I walked out and sure enough, someone wasn't sharing, someone else didn't have a good attitude, and everyone just needed a little break. So we talked for a minute and then i took Morgan (the attitude offender) back into my office and asked her to sit down next to the desk and work on getting a "happy heart" as we call it.

She wasn't too excited about the process to start with and there was more than a little pouting going on, so when the phone rang I felt fine about telling Morgan to "stay there" while i went into the kitchen to take the call. After a few minutes there was a knock at the back door and the Neighbor dad dropped in to see if his kid had come over to play with David. We sat down and chatted for a while and watched a bit of the Colts game.

Did you know that Payton Manning has never won a post-season game? Did you also know that even in college he had trouble in clutch games that really mattered? I sure didn't - I'm impressed with his demeanor, his committment to studying the game, his generosity and the way he carries himself very humbly and yet confident at the same time. Its going to be an interesting postseason.

So a few minutes later I ran in to the office and pulled up www.cbssportsline.com to see what time the next game was scheduled and when the Ohio State game would be Monday night. I never even noticed the still figure next to the desk waiting for permission to get up and play. I ran back in time to see the next play and sat down with Avery and laughed at all the guys with helmets falling down.

Not long afterwards, Rebekah walked into the room with my glasses case that she could only have gotten out of my office (which is off-limits for the kids). I scolded her lightly saying "you know you're not supposed to be in Daddy's office" She replied with "Morgan in daddy's office!" and suddenly i felt about one inch tall.

Running back into the office, there was Morgan with the cheeriest smile on her face that you could possibly imagine. She had plenty of time to work on her "happy heart" and was ready to play nicely now.

I fell all over myself apologizing for forgetting and taking too long. She was so gracious and forgiving. She gave me a big hug - the smile never faded - and we both learned a lesson. Forgiveness goes both ways, and it's best shared with a hug and a smile.

Morgan still loves her daddy!

NMX (NYMEX Holdings Inc)

NMX is another name in the financial exchange area that has been white hot. It came public at a price of $59 but has yet to actually trade below $100. Its first day it eclipsed $150 but has pulled back and consolidated its gains.

I got involved when it first pulled back and then began making what I assumed would be a sustained run. The name has fizzled out a bit and is close to stopping me out but I am hopeful it will find support above its previous low. I am confident that it will have a sustained run and offer a great opportunity. The key is timing the buy right so you don't get shaken out during a normal correction. I expect this name to be on my watch / trade list for some time.

Jan 8, 2007

Well today the market was relatively healthy but NMX pushed a bit further down to stop me out at a 10% loss. I still like the fundamentals but "discipline trumps conviction" and so I have to turn this one out for now. If it can regain its footing and offer a low risk spot to get back involved, i will reconsider. But for now I will find better opportunities.

JCG (J Crew Group Inc)

JCG came public in June and traded very well from the offering. After the first 2 days of very bullish trading, it pulled back and begain its first consolidation. It took 2 full months to work through the consolidation and then it broke to a new high (50% above the offering price) and marched steadily from there. It formed a base on base pattern and then i took my initial purchase as it broke to a new high from this consolidation. The stock quickly ran up to a fantastic gain and so when it pulled back I decided to add a few more shares to capture what i believed to be a very high probability of a retest of the high. I am still waiting for that re-test but the stock has continued to drift down into an area that should provide good support.

This is definitely a turnaround story fundamentally. The company lost money from 2002 through 2005 and basically broke even in FY 2006 (ending in Jan). However they are ramping up their margins and sales have grown at a respectable rate. The company is expected to earn nearly $1.00 per share this year when they report after this month, and next years estimates are looking attractive as well. I would really like to see the sales growth continue to feel comfortable holding this long-term. But for now, the momentum and the change in fundamental direction should drive some attractive stock action.